Jan 9, 2012

Could the Republican Civil War Make the Party Implode?




It seems there's a civil war going on in the Republican party.
A long time friend of Gingrich just gave 5 million dollars
 to render unto Romney in S Carolina, 
as Romney's Super PACs rendered unto Gingrich in Iowa.
That much negative campaigning's going to really hurt.
I think the party could fall apart.
By contrast, I'm guessing that 
so long as Obama and Clinton get along
they'll hold their party together.
Though, there might be an exodus of progressives 
who won't be afraid to leave with the current GOP in tatters.
But smart politicians will know 
that they can stem the out-flow
by sweetening the pot with a new left-ward shift
that'll retain key progressives.

We could get what Obama wanted.
He pragmatically moved to the center economically
to get his party a "permanent majority" 
so that they could then tilt back to the left, 
under another Democratic Party Machine.  

But ironically it'd be the Tea-Party-esque activist spirit
(and the freedom of $peech) who gets the job done
by turning on the Republican Party establishment.

This means it'll take a coalition of folks
 outside the Democratic party to push for 
American forms of Proportional Representation (PR).  
For why would the dominant party remove its ability to win disproportionate representation with First-Past-the-Post?  
It's going to take strange bedfellows
 to make the real changes we need.
We're going to need funds from economic conservatives
who want to spite the rising Democratic party machine.
So we gotta convince them that PR is the only right way
 to guarantee more centrism in our politics.
This also means taking a less-is-more
 anti-perfectionistic approach to PR, 
for there's no way in hell they're going to support
 the adoption of an EU-style PR in the US.  

Let's hope that enough people see how crucial is
 electoral diversification for the long-term health of our democracy to pragmatically support a PR 
that does not render unto each party as the party deserves.
dlw
PS,
Methinks if the freedom of $peech to soil is demonstrated
in both Iowa and South Carolina 
versus the different sides of this Civil War,
there might be more broad support for
 Campaign Finance Reform
or common sense regulations of $peech.
PPS,
Andrew Sullivan quotes a prediction of more or less gradual change within the GOP, depending on whether Romney gets the nomination and loses or Santorum gets the nomination and loses.  If Santorum gets the nomination and loses by a landslide to Obama then the writing will be on the wall... I suppose there's precedent to presume that a major party isn't going to fall apart over raucous primaries, but I think there's much more pent-up energy and longing for serious change in the USA today.  Single-party domination that leads to a dramatic change in which two major parties are in power is the most likely change.   
dlw

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